ZIP 95008 Housing Intelligence
ZIP Intelligence™ provides ZIP-level market behavior analysis within CB Intelligence™, focused on downside risk, recovery behavior, and structural durability rather than short-term trend chasing or price prediction.
This free sample examines historical behavior over the most recent 10-year period (2015–2024) using indexed price data. Extended multi-decade analysis is available through Advisor Access.
Terminology is available on the FAQ & Glossary page.
Executive Summary
Over the past decade, ZIP 95008 (Campbell) has behaved as a durable, owner-occupant–oriented South Bay market, with price movements primarily driven by broader interest-rate cycles rather than localized demand shocks.
During this period, the market experienced a clear rate-driven correction following a 2018 peak, with indexed prices declining into a trough in 2021 before entering a multi-year recovery phase. While the drawdown was meaningful, subsequent behavior indicates that the decline reflected temporary valuation compression rather than structural impairment.
For buyers with a medium- to long-term holding horizon, outcomes during this window have been more sensitive to time held through the cycle than to short-term entry precision.
Price Behavior (10-Year Indexed View)
The chart below shows indexed price behavior from 2015 through 2024, indexed to emphasize relative movement, cycle shape, and recovery patterns rather than nominal sale prices.
This view highlights steady expansion into a 2018 peak, a rate-driven contraction spanning 2019 through 2021, and a recovery phase beginning in 2022 that remains in progress as of 2024.
The purpose of indexing is to visualize market behavior, not to imply future price direction.
Indexed prices reflect relative change over time based on FHFA House Price Index data, not actual home values. Estimated price equivalents, where shown, are illustrative only and are not appraisals or forecasts.
Recent Cycle & Drawdown Analysis
Within the last 10 years, ZIP 95008 experienced one dominant cycle.
2018 peak to 2021 trough
Peak year: 2018
Trough year: 2021
Peak-to-trough drawdown: approximately -15.8 percent (indexed)
Primary driver: rapid interest-rate increases and affordability compression
Recovery phase from 2022 to 2024
Indexed prices stabilized in 2022 and began recovering in subsequent years. As of 2024, prices remain below the prior peak but have retraced a meaningful portion of the drawdown.
Interpretation
The correction was rate-driven rather than demand-driven, consistent with behavior observed in rate-sensitive, owner-occupied markets. Recovery has been gradual rather than immediate, reinforcing the importance of holding period length in this ZIP.
Volatility & Return Context (10-Year Window)
Year-over-year returns during this period show strong expansion years from 2015 through 2018, elevated negative volatility during 2019 through 2021, and lower-amplitude, uneven recovery returns after 2022.
Over the 10-year period, the estimated annualized return is approximately 2.4 percent, reflecting the impact of entering near a cycle peak and experiencing a full rate-reset correction.
This illustrates a core ZIP Intelligence™ principle: shorter observation windows can materially change perceived performance, even in structurally durable markets.
Structural Context (Observed Over the Period)
Several structural characteristics help explain recent behavior.
Supply limitations
Campbell remains largely built-out, limiting the ability of new supply to materially offset demand during recovery phases.
Employment accessibility
Proximity to South Bay employment centers continues to support baseline housing demand, even during tightening cycles.
Owner-occupant demand profile
Transaction activity appears driven primarily by primary-residence buyers rather than speculative turnover, contributing to slower but steadier recoveries following market stress.
These factors shape how the ZIP adjusts under pressure, though they do not eliminate cyclical volatility.
Buyer Fit (Based on 10-Year Behavior)
Best suited for
- Buyers planning to hold through full interest-rate cycles
- Primary-residence buyers prioritizing durability over short-term appreciation
- Households able to tolerate interim drawdowns
Less suited for
- Short-term investors or flippers
- Buyers requiring strong appreciation within two to three years
- Strategies dependent on precise market timing
Scope & Next Steps
This analysis reflects 10 years of historical behavior only. Longer-horizon conclusions (up to 50 years), including behavior across multiple recessions and deeper drawdowns, require additional historical context available through Advisor Access.
🔒Explore Advisor Access
Advisor Access unlocks deeper intelligence and insights for the ZIPs, including:
- advisor-ready framing language for client presentations
- comparative positioning versus adjacent, “hotter,” and “safer” ZIPs
- structural risk factors and caveats
- buyer-fit nuance by time horizon and capital objective
- access to ZIP Performance Analysis where available
Disclaimer: ZIP Intelligence™ provides historical analysis and educational context only. It does not constitute financial, tax, legal, or investment advice, and does not predict future market performance.
Questions?
Read our FAQ and Glossary page here.