ZIP 95991 Housing Intelligence™ (10-Year)

2015–2024

Executive Summary

Over the past 10 years, ZIP 95991 has behaved like a market in extended recovery transitioning into a fresh expansion, with a brief, shallow pullback before re-establishing new highs. The dominant feature of this window is persistence: once the recovery phase stabilized, the ZIP moved steadily toward prior peaks, broke through into expansion in the early 2020s, and absorbed a modest correction in 2023 without shifting into a prolonged contraction.

This 10-year view captures a favorable segment of the cycle and should be interpreted as recent-cycle context rather than a full assessment of long-horizon resilience.

Long-Term Price Behavior

The 2015–2024 period shows a clear upward trajectory with limited multi-year disruption. The index progresses steadily through the second half of the 2010s, accelerates into the early 2020s, and finishes the decade at a new high in 2024.

Long-Term Price Behavior (Indexed, 10-Year View)

The most important behavioral takeaway from this window is that the ZIP’s drawdown pressure diminished gradually over multiple years, suggesting that the recovery phase was not a single-year snapback but a sustained multi-year rebuild.

Market Cycles and Regime Context (2015–2024)

Within this 10-year slice, the ZIP transitions through three regimes:

  • Recovery regime (2015–2020)
    The ZIP remained below the prior peak but improved steadily. Drawdowns narrowed each year, which is typical of durable recovery rather than speculative rebound.
  • Expansion regime (2021–2022)
    The ZIP cleared the prior peak threshold and re-entered expansion. This is when cycle classification changes materially: the market is no longer “recovering back to old highs,” but establishing new highs.
  • Brief correction and re-expansion (2023–2024)
    2023 shows a modest pullback, followed by a return to expansion in 2024. This pattern is consistent with a shallow correction inside a broader uptrend rather than a structural downturn within this decade.

Downside Risk and Drawdown Characteristics

This 10-year window does include downside events, but they are shallow relative to historic stress cycles. The drawdown profile tightens steadily from 2015 through 2020, reaches 0% (new highs) in 2021–2022, dips modestly in 2023 (approximately -1.56%), then returns to 0% in 2024.

This matters for buyer expectation-setting: short-horizon risk still exists, but during this particular decade, downside episodes were brief and contained.

Recovery Behavior (Within the 10-Year Window)

Recovery behavior here is best described as persistent rather than explosive. From 2015 onward, the ZIP shows steady progress toward prior peaks over multiple years. The key inflection is 2021, when the ZIP enters expansion (drawdown returns to 0%), signaling that recovery is complete within the confines of this dataset.

The 2023 pullback is a useful reminder that completion of recovery does not eliminate volatility, but the subsequent return to expansion in 2024 suggests the pullback did not evolve into a longer contraction during this period.

Volatility Characteristics (What Ownership Felt Like)

Year-over-year returns during 2015–2024 are mostly positive, with a single modest negative year in 2023 (-1.56%). The strongest momentum years in this window occur during 2021–2022 (+15.52% and +14.17%), reflecting an acceleration phase.

The volatility profile here supports a straightforward advisor framing: most years rewarded holders, but a buyer relying on a very short exit window would still face timing risk around correction years like 2023.

Structural Considerations (What You Can and Cannot Infer From 10 Years)

A 10-year window is not sufficient to make definitive structural durability claims. However, the behavior is consistent with a ZIP that participated in post-recovery compounding and exhibited stable recovery momentum rather than fragile, stop-start rebounds.

This decade provides evidence of recent-cycle stability, but longer windows are required to evaluate deep-stress behavior, drawdown depth under crisis conditions, and recovery speed across multiple downturns.

Buyer Fit Analysis (10-Year Lens)

Based on the 2015–2024 behavior, this ZIP is best aligned with buyers who:

  • prioritize holding periods long enough to tolerate occasional correction years
  • value steady compounding over short-term timing plays
  • are comfortable with intermittent volatility even during expansion regimes

This ZIP may be less aligned with strategies that:

  • require smooth year-to-year appreciation
  • depend on guaranteed short-horizon exits
  • cannot tolerate modest pullbacks after new highs are established

Risk and Caveats

This 10-year report reflects a limited period that includes recovery and expansion phases. It does not provide full-cycle stress testing. Past behavior does not guarantee future results, and macro conditions, credit availability, policy shifts, and employment drivers can materially change outcomes.